Psychological beliefs are sound when one relies on a rational analysis of introspection, for one's mind is accessible at any time. The assertion that psychology can tell us about the mental states of other minds might seem like a valid extrapolation of self-knowledge, yet it is doomed for epistemic failure. A stubborn fact remains despite the popularity of contrary belief: no amount of time spent studying historical case studies of psychology can allow a non-telepath to gaze into another mind.
First and foremost, psychology helps one understand one's own mind, the only mind one can know. Moreover, the core of psychology is not grasped by scouring books or listening to the words of educators. It is grasped by a rationalistic analysis of phenomenology and one's personal experiences; all else is probabilistic at best. One's own thoughts, motivations, and priorities can often be understood apart from discussing them with others.
The mistake that many make even if they do come to understand themselves is extrapolating from their own motivations or thought processes to those of others. Two people may display the same behavioral characteristics, for example, but have completely different objectives and intents. The body is animated by the mind, but the mind's motivations are not directly visible to outside observers. To see a gesture or other action is not the same as seeing the thoughts of the one performing it.
It is not possible for a non-telepathic being to truly know the contents of other minds based upon behavioral observations, and thus psychology is never a direct bridge into the minds of other people--nevertheless, a thorough grasp of reason and a sound understanding of oneself can indeed help identify what others seem to be feeling or thinking. Probabilities can epistemologically justify certain reactions, but they can never justify the belief that one can know other minds apart from telepathy. Telepathy, after all, is the only way to truly confirm claims about which mental states are being experienced other beings, even if almost no one understands why this is the case.
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