Agnosticism About Conspiracy Theories

Certain conspiracy theories rallied around in 2020 by conservatives (such as the idea that Donald Trump is the last barrier between global satanic groups) and liberals (such as the idea that American police are almost all racist) have survived into 2021.  A day from the transfer of America's presidency from Trump to Biden, some of these baseless ideas have an increasingly vehement grip on their adherents.  The non-rationalistic people of the country, which far outnumber the handful of true rationalists, almost always take positions of ultimate belief that these conspiracy theories are true or that they are false, when skepticism about their truth or falsity is where reason leads.

Unless a conspiracy theory contains a logical incoherence and not mere inconsistency with sensory perceptions or memories that might not even correspond to external events at all, it is irrational to believe it is false because there would be no way to disprove it--but it would also be irrational to believe it is true when it cannot be proven.  At most, one could contrive a conspiracy theory that is logically possible in that it might be true because it does not contradict any strictly logical truth.  It is impossible to go beyond this or the conspiracy would not only be visible but open, which would render it something other than what is typically associated with the phrase "conspiracy theory."

The mere possibility of something being true does not prove anything more than that it is not inherently false.  In other words, maybe it is true, but maybe it is not.  Conjuring up an elaborate but speculative basis for a conspiracy theory about the "deep state," an international cabal against the West, or any other similarly paranoid idea does not provide support for the claims.  A lack of proof--not mere sensory evidence, but logical proof--makes belief irrational, no matter how grand or personal the stakes are.  Even if a conspiracy theory is both true and has significant ramifications for the politics of one's country, the only rational position is that of not believing what logic cannot prove.

Rationalistic skepticism rescues one from belief based on subjective persuasion, fear, and ignorance.  Perhaps some conspiracy theories that are logically possible are true, and perhaps they are not.  Either way, there is nothing about them that is necessarily true (as in logical axioms) or self-refuting.  The only rational stance is to neither believe nor disbelieve in them, holding to agnosticism about which is the case: these theories are possibly true, but no thoroughly intelligent person pretends to be capable of knowing that which they cannot prove.  Rationalists who have never embraced conspiracy theories might find this easy.  Others who have spent some of their lives deeply immersed in them might find this difficult.  In either case, it is possible for everyone to avoid making assumptions.